Probability Elicitation in Influence Diagram Modeling by Using Interval Probability

Probability Elicitation in Influence Diagram Modeling by Using Interval Probability

In decision modeling with influence diagrams, the most challenging task is probability elicitation from domain experts. It is usually very difficult for experts to directly assign precise probabilities to chance nodes. In this paper, we propose an approach to elicit probability effectively by using the concept of interval probability (IP). During the elicitation process, a group of experts assi...

Expert Probability Elicitation Tools

of Terrorism Events (CREATE) under award number 2010-ST-061-RE0001. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Department of Homeland Security, or the University of Southern California, or CREATE. Expert Probability Elicitation Tools Stephen C. Hora, University of Souther...

Part II Probability Elicitation

Probability Modeling of Synthetic Theories in Economics

Economic theories seek a scientific explanation or prediction of economic phenomena using a set of axiom, defined expressions, and theorems. Mathematically explicit economic models are one of these theories. Due to the unknown structure of each model, the existence of measurement error in economic committees and failure of Ceteris Paribus; the Synthetic of any economic theory requires probabili...

Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

In this paper we contribute two novel methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The first method simplifies the task of experts providing conditional probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a fully ordered set. In this order, each state’s definition is inclusive of the preceding state’s definition...